sample="quota" bates="81187645" isource="atc" decade="1980" class="ui" date="19800000" Medium OLD GOLD FILTER BRAND FIVE YEAR FORECAST 1981-1985 (Millions of Units) OLD GOLD FILTER BRAND FIVE YEAR FORECAST 1981-1985 The High Levels are considered optimistic, but not unattainable. The Medium Levels are conservatively realistic. The Low Levels are pessimistic and represent what is considered as the worst case. RATIONALE FOR FORECASTS GENERAL The High and Medium Forecasts assume that the Old Gold Filter Brand is given continued support. Industry Category projections are based on MRD's 1979 Five Year Forecast. All forecasts are rounded to the nearest 25 million units. 1. OLD GOLD FILTER PARENT A. High Level Forecast This assumes that both Parent Kings and 100's will maintain their 1980 shares of the Lo-Fi category. (OGF Parent will have an estimated 0.66 total share of the Lo-Fi category in 1980). B. Medium Level Forecast This is based on the current rates of decline excluding the -3.7% losses caused by Gift Stars withdrawal. This equates to -13% decline on OGFK and -17% on OGF 100's. C. Low Level Forecast This assumes that OGF Parent will continue to decline at its YTD 1980 Vs. YAG rate of -17% on OGFK and -21% on OGF 100's. 2. OLD GOLD LIGHTS A. High Level Forecast This is based on a successful re-launch of Old Gold Lights and the attainment of 600MM units in 1981, +200MM units, 150 Vs. 1980 forecast. Continued growth is then assumed with each successive year contributing +200MM. B. Medium Level Forecast Assumes a successful re-launch with OGL maintaining its share of the growing Low Tar/VLT categories, from 1981 onwards. (OGL is projected to have a 0.22% share of the combined Low Tar/VLT categories in 1981). C. Low Level Forecast This is based on a similar track records as the original Old Gold Lights.