sample="quota" bates="2072497196" isource="pm" decade="1990" class="ui" date="19970711" KRC RESEARCH PRIVILIGED AND CONFIDENTIAL SUBJECT TO ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGE TO: Settlement Team FROM: Steve Lombardo RE: Tracking Results: Warning! DATE: July 11, 1997 cc: David Sylvia, Steve Nadherny We have just received the data from last night's tracking as well as the results from he Tarrance Group/Harrison Hickman poll (for public and Hill use) and the implications are quite troubling. While the Tarrance/Hickman findings will provide us with some good lobbying and public posturing survey data (we will be providing you with a detailed analysis shortly) there are some trouble spots... most notable the pre-messages ballot test on the settlement plan is 45% favor and 43% oppose. This is from a national survey of 1200 adults conducted from July 7-9. These results represent the lowest net-favor (=2) in any polling (KRC or public polls) conducted to date. The post-message numbers are somewhat better at 51% favor and 41% oppose. However, we included primarily favorable messages. Our own data from last night's tracking (N=300) has 48% favor and 38% oppose. The post-message numbers are 50% favor and 43% oppose... again in the case of our on-going tracking, these numbers represent the lowest net-favor margin (+7) to date. Equally as problematic is that as of last night... many of the key internals are tanking as well. We are getting less bounce from the concessions the industry has made and the negatives are packing a little more wallop. We have turned on tobacco track for Sunday night the 13th... and will be able to get directional confirmation of these findings for early next week.